Presumptive GOP nominee Donald J. Trump of Manhattan
During an election cycle in which it’s been repeatedly proven the political chattering class has the capacity to be quite wrong, it is no shock the ascendancy of Donald Trump has some prognosticators once again raising the question of whether Texas will be any color other than deep Republican red when voters make their choice this fall. But any analysis predicting this state is now in play for the Democrats at the national level is probably naïve at best.
Even self-proclaimed “Never Trump” Republicans must, at this point, recognize hoping for his implosion is not a strategy.
The minority party here is coming off a 2014 general election that saw more than $40 million spent on an effort that by any objective measure was a disaster, with the Democratic statewide ticket losing by more than 20 points. Every presidential result in Texas going back to 1992 – when a Clinton was first on the ballot – shows Democrats’ high water mark here is about 44 percent for Clinton in 1996 and roughly the same for President Obama in 2008.
But that fact does not mean Democrats are without new opportunities in this once-in-a-lifetime election as the presumptive GOP nominee is not even embraced by the top elected Republican in the country: Speaker Paul Ryan.
Attempting to predict races is generally self-serving and unhelpful to the public. But a clear-eyed assessment of a changing battlefield is appropriate. The Trump effect in Texas will likely not be a big electoral splash. Instead, the real game afoot is one that could give some additional leverage to Democrats in the 2017 Texas Legislature they otherwise would not have.
The Texas Capitol could be within reach for some Democrats who otherwise might not have a path to victory in the November elections.
The partisan makeup of the Texas Senate is set. But Democrats could fight their way to nearly 60 members in the House – still very much in the minority but able to deliver more votes when the state’s budget hangs in the balance and some Tea Party members of the GOP caucus could be intransigent. The Democrats’ numbers in the lower chamber have hovered closer to 50 as special elections have been settled.
The state Democratic Party is strained for resources but is certainly eager to capitalize on a rare political moment. The districts of some GOP Texas House members may become hostile territory as Trump’s general election campaign unfolds.
Two such lawmakers – Rep. Gilbert Pena, R-Pasadena, and Rep. Rick Galindo, R-San Antonio – are already in districts where President Obama won by at least four points in 2012. Their reelections will be tough if not impossible.
Potentially depressed Republican turnout thanks to Trump should be of particular concern for the party in Dallas County, where former GOP Chairman Jonathan Neerman maintains he will never support the Manhattan businessman even after Sen. Ted Cruz dropped out of the race for the White House.
Rep. Rodney Anderson, R-Irving, is in a district where former Rep. Linda Harper Brown in 2012 barely edged out a Democrat – 50.07 percent to 48.26 percent – when President Obama and Mitt Romney were at the top of the ballot.
Rep. Kenneth Sheets, R-Dallas, similarly held on by the skin of his teeth in 2012 with 50.84 percent to 49.16 percent for his Democratic challenger. Both Sheets and Anderson face Democratic opponents who will work to connect them to Trump at every opportunity. Also in Dallas County, Rep. Cindy Burkett faced no Democratic challenger in the last cycle. Hers is a district carried by Romney in 2012 with 52 percent of the vote. This time, Rep. Burkett faces Democrat Rhetta Bowers in November.
Rep. Jason Villalba, R-Dallas, is already running away from Trump by arguing the real estate mogul’s nomination is the death of the Republican Party as we know it. “The political party that I have cherished and revered for all of my life has chosen as its standard bearer a buffoonish, clownish, orange, carnival barking snake oil salesman to represent me and my family in front of the entire world,” Villalba said.
Heading down to Houston, Rep. Sarah Davis, R-West University Place, will be a challenge for Democrats to target because of her opposition to tighter restrictions on abortion and other stances that don’t adhere to ultra-conservative ideology. Her environment for reelection, though, could be upended if the Democrat in the race, attorney Ben Rose, can exploit Trump’s high negatives and force the incumbent into making the case to moderates they can vote for Hillary Clinton then cross over to keep their Republican representative in Austin.
That would put Rep. Davis in a similar strategic position to former Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth, in 2012 when she narrowly beat Republican Mark Shelton 51 percent to 49 percent after spending millions educating people that it’s okay to vote for the other party for president then crossover down ballot.
In South Texas, Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Alice, faces Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley, a member of a well-connected Democratic family in what is said to be a second-tier race as far as a real chance for a Democratic victory.
At this point, there is no credible argument for national Democrats to put resources into Texas. During this upside down election, however, there is a good chance state and local Democrats can start to move things back in their direction by focusing on straight-ticket voting coordinated campaigns in urban counties excluding Tarrant, the largest Republican urban county in the United States.
This story originally appeared on The Quorum Report, where you can find up to the minute daily intelligence on what is happening in Texas politics and government. Copyright May, 2016, Harvey Kronberg, www.quorumreport.com, All rights are reserved.
